Researchers associated with Stanford University have produced a Sovereign Fiscal Responsibility Index that is an assessment of the strength of a country’s current and projected fiscal outcomes and the quality of its fiscal governance arrangements.
The 2011 rankings here put Australia top of the 34 countries in the index for 2011 and New Zealand second to top. Australia and New Zealand have relatively strong existing fiscal positions, fiscal projections (to 2050) that look relatively sustainable and relative good fiscal institutions.
The achievability of fiscal projections out to 2050 is clearly a matter of opinion, and New Zealand’s fiscal outlook looks problematic to many given our history of government spending blowouts.
Less problematic is New Zealand’s top score for the fiscal governance component of the index. Much of the credit for this must be given to the provisions put in place by the Fiscal Responsibility Act 1993 that are now in the Public Finance Act. Its focus on achieving and sustaining debt at a prudent level through fiscal surpluses on average during each economic cycle could have been (but was not) tailor made for the purpose of giving New Zealand its top ranking. It surely also deserves some credit for New Zealand’s relatively strong fiscal position, including, the battle by each of the main political parties in the last general election to establish themselves as the party best able to restore fiscal surpluses.
So why the current drive to improve the fiscal position and New Zealand’s underlying fiscal governance arrangements? Here are two reasons:
- A responsible fiscal position is one thing, fiscal settings conducive to greater prosperity and a better quality of life for New Zealanders is another.(The Fiscal Responsibility Act was silent on the question of whether a large amount of low quality spending and unnecessarily high effective marginal tax rates were making New Zealanders at large worse off. Yet these things matter.)
- The enormous increase in government spending in New Zealand between 2005 and 2009, in conjunction with the Christchurch earthquakes, and the drop off in tax revenues have spilled New Zealand into large, fiscal deficits that threaten to persist.(This is a problem independently of New Zealand’s ranking and it is an open question as to whether the Stanford ranking (based on 2010 statistics) fully captured the current extent of the problem.)
See here for an article on the proposed cap for government spending.